Oklahoma and much of the central U.S. will likely see a hotter-than-average summer this year, according to long-range forecasts at the Climate Prediction Center.
With the official start of summer on Monday, the center on Thursday issued a forecast saying there was a 33 to 40 percent likelihood that Oklahoma will see above average temperatures — and average precipitation — for July, August and September.
There is a zero percent chance that the region will see cooler than average temperatures for those months, according to the center.
The center, based in College Park, Maryland, issues forecasts based on ocean surface temperatures, past conditions and other factors. It does not account for specific weather systems affecting a local area, but offers a likelihood of greater or lesser chances for above- or below-average temperatures and precipitation for larger regions.
The one-month outlook for Oklahoma, also issued on Thursday, shows equal chances of above or below both normal temperatures and precipitation.
The outlook for August, September and October predicts a 50 percent chance that Oklahoma will be hotter than average, with zero likelihood that it will be cooler than average.
The center said “La Nina,” or cooler than normal waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean, is favored to develop this summer, with a 75 percent chance of those conditions also present in the fall and winter this year.
In the U.S., La Nina conditions can mean precipitation in the southwestern and southeastern states is below average and allows development of many stronger-than-average hurricanes in the Atlantic and fewer in the Pacific.