The crisis in Ukraine is setting up the biggest East-West confrontation in decades and in many ways revives Cold War fears of a catastrophic collision between Washington and Moscow.

Clearly, things have changed since the Soviet Union’s breakup. The target of Russian ambition — Ukraine — was itself once a part of the USSR. But many of the players — the U.S., European NATO nations and Russia — constitute a rough reunion of an old conflict that cast a shadow over the world for decades.

A lot of speculation surrounds the ability of Ukraine to defend itself and to what extent its friends might get involved.

But two questions pop up for me: What’s likely to happen next? And how will this affect us at home?

Whenever a major conflict erupts, oil prices invariably rise. This becomes more severe when one of the principals is a major oil producer, which Russia is.

Russia produces 10% of the world’s oil supply and provides up to 39% of Europe’s natural gas. That’s a lot of leverage, especially against energy-hungry countries in the European Union.

Russia’s incursion into the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine scuttled its prized Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline to Germany. Other European countries may likewise look to other sources of natural gas.

That will put pressure on global oil and gas supplies, which will mean rising prices. For U.S. consumers already pinched by high fuel and utility costs, the pain is likely to worsen.

But there is a silver lining for oil- and gas-producing states. Those higher prices will make marginal wells profitable, which means more product to sell and more people to hire. Already, U.S. active rig counts are up by 248 in the past year. In Oklahoma, rig counts have gone from 16 last March to 53 now. These trends could continue.

It will take time for Europe to build the seaport infrastructure needed to accept more liquefied natural gas from U.S. suppliers. Until the Ukraine situation is resolved, that appears to be the direction things are going. American natural gas exporters stand to benefit.

With the U.S., the United Kingdom and the EU pressuring Russia with sanctions, it’s expected Moscow will return the favor in its own ways. Russia’s economic tools are limited, and it may not want to directly confront NATO militarily. But that doesn’t mean it won’t retaliate.

The Russians have spent decades mastering cyber warfare capabilities. They also don’t mind tacitly allowing — or even hiring — cyber criminals to wreak havoc on western nations.

Last year, the city of Tulsa was a victim of a ransomware attack thought to have been launched by a Russia-based cybercrime syndicate known as Conti. Hackers compromised the city’s email, billing and law enforcement systems. The damage took several months and $2 million to repair.

Similar hacks have affected U.S. hospital systems and all levels of government agencies. The biggest fear is that such attacks could successfully compromise vital services such as the nation’s power grid.

Whether these attacks are carried out by contracted criminals or the Russian government, the goal is simple: cause disruption and erode trust in American institutions.

Outside the cyber warfare arena, Russia has arguably had greater success in combining tech savvy methods with old-fashioned disinformation.

The Russian government embraced social media early by creating Facebook pages designed to look like American grassroots groups. They’d then attract followers from both sides of the partisan divide and feed them a steady diet of incendiary memes and website links, all designed to create deeper societal divisions.

On Twitter, Russia’s Internet Research Agency in 2014 created a fake news story about a Ku Klux Klan march at the University of Missouri that turned violent. It was so convincing that local law enforcement and news media rushed to the school in response.

No march happened, but the resulting fear and anger on campus and online had the desired effect: disruption and division. More of this is likely, especially with the upcoming midterm elections.

Disinformation efforts aren’t just limited to social media. Russian-linked efforts have penetrated other news and information sources.

Earlier this month, the Biden administration accused Zero Hedge, a popular financial news website, of publishing articles written by authors with ties to the Russian government.

Zero Hedge denied this, but the articles cited all parroted Russian government talking points concerning Ukraine and had ties to the Strategic Culture Foundation, a Russian front previously sanctioned for spreading disinformation during the 2020 presidential election.

Moscow can also pump propaganda directly into American living rooms through its Russia Today network, which is carried by DirecTV, Dish Network and ROKU, among others.

In a more mainstream arena, Moscow has found friendly voices in some of the most-watched news programs. Fox News host Tucker Carlson has been unabashed in his criticism of American support for Ukraine.

Carlson said the troop buildup around Ukraine was simply because Russian President Vladimir Putin “just wants to keep his western borders secure,” as if Russia was under any threat of invasion from its smaller neighbor.

All this messaging — be it propaganda, fake news, disinformation or friendly American voices — helps achieve one goal: creating fractures inside targeted societies.

“Information warfare opens wide asymmetric possibilities for decreasing the fighting potential of (the) enemy,” Russian Gen. Valery Gerasimov said in 2013.

Nine years later, that plan is at full speed, with no signs of letting up.