Predicting who might win on Nov. 5 are meaningless without the question of who will vote. It’s one thing for a voter to give a pollster an answer or agree to a sign in their yard, it’s another for that voter to actually cast a ballot.

As a candidate recently told me: Signs don’t win elections, ballots do.

Oklahoma’s voter participation has been decline for at least two decades. The last time voter turnout was higher than the national average in a presidential election was in 1988.

Even worse are local elections.

In Tulsa, about 75% of registered voters didn’t bother choosing their mayor or city councilor last month. There’s a mayoral and three city council runoffs along with the presidential ballot in November.

Presidential elections typically attract more voters, but it’ll still only hover at about 50%. Those tend to appeal to partisan values, and the modern inundation of national news is often a catalyst.

Nationally, the trend since 1996 has been going up, according to the University of Florida Election Lab, which has tracked voter turnout for every state since 1789.

The lowest U.S. voter turnout was in 1792 at 6.3%. Chalk that up to Americans believing the re-election of President George Washington was crucial to national stability. The second low turnout was at 10% in the 1820 re-election of James Monroe. Monroe was unopposed, though one rogue elector voted for John Quincy Adams to keep him from a unanimous decision.

The highest national turnout is among the most disputed: the 1876 election of Rutherford B. Hayes by one electoral vote over Samuel J. Tilden, who won the popular vote. It was a tense time during Reconstruction and 82.6% of voters turned out. Historians believe some kind of deal was struck to keep national peace.

The second highest voter participation was in 1860 with the election of Abraham Lincoln. Tensions that ultimately led to the Civil War also attracted 81.8% of voters.

At the local level in our modern era, Tulsa’s municipal elections — and all state school board races — are nonpartisan. It requires voters set aside party loyalty and choose based on individual ideas. Those open ballots call for an informed voter.

For decades, a focus has been on registering voters. History shows spikes of voter disenfranchisement targeted at people in racial minorities, women and those in poverty. Efforts to making voting harder still pop up under the guise of election integrity.

Voter registration drives remain an important function, particularly as some states try to pass laws putting up barriers.

However, Oklahoma’s growing apathy indicates a bigger effort is needed to inspire existing voters to become civically engaged.

Each state has unique characteristics affecting voter turnout. For the swing states, where there is more even partisan divides, a recent YouGov poll indicates a record turnout for the November election.

In Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, between 80% to 85% of voters participating in the poll said they planned to vote. In 2020, those states had turnouts of highs in the upper 60% and lower 70% range.

Those states get more attention from candidates and messaging from campaign that spur voters into action.

Not so much in Oklahoma, but we aren’t the only state struggling with voter apathy. There isn’t one solution to galvanizing the electorate; it’s more of a suite of reforms.

States with higher voter participation tend to have full online voter registration, pre-registration at age 16 and youth poll workers. Oklahoma has an online registration option and pre-registration for 17 1/2-year-olds.

Perhaps allowing youth poll workers would help with the lack of workers and get kids active in civic life.

Competition on the ballot brings out voters, and Oklahoma fails here. In the last three legislative election cycles, 70% of seats went uncontested or were decided in primary elections.

The grassroots movement for a unified ballot led by Oklahoma United holds promise for this problem. Like in municipal races, it would place all state candidates on one ballot with their party identified, and the top two go to the general election.

Giving every voter a ballot and giving more choices can only be an improvement.

Other reforms are more in policy, such as strengthening campaign finance reporting and getting better control of dark money maneuvering.

The harder changes are in our culture: Dialing down the divisive rhetoric, restoring faith in our democratic processes and convincing people their vote does matter.

This election season is winding down and also ramping up. Don’t let voter fatigue set in. Too many people fought too hard to guarantee this basic right in our representative democracy.

One person, one vote is the greatest equalizer in our nation. A ballot is a great weapon. Use it.

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