Oklahoma COVID-19 hospitalizations outstrip delta variant wave's peak from summer

The three-day average for COVID hospitalizations in Oklahoma hit 1,702, which is 6% above the worst average during the delta surge, which was 1,607 in late August. The level is 15% — 293 hospitalizations — below the overall record posted in late December 2020, when the state reported daily counts and not three-day averages.

For the first time, every single one of Tulsa County’s 42 reportable ZIP codes is in the Tulsa Health Department’s worst dark red color denoting “extremely severe risk” of COVID spread. One Tulsa County ZIP code, 74117, has so few residents that the Health Department does not report its rate of spread.

Dr. Dale Bratzler, the University of Oklahoma’s chief COVID officer, noted that Arkansas, next door, also is experiencing a “very large outbreak” as the omicron variant migrates inward from the coasts.

“What we’re seeing is the coasts have the very high rates of this omicron variant and it’s moving into the Midwest,” Bratzler said. “So right now we’re a week or 10 days perhaps behind the East Coast, and our cases are going up quite rapidly.”

Oklahoma’s seven-day moving average of daily new cases is at a record 11,118 — a whopping 161% above the record, set last January, of 4,256. The case count average is 55% above a week ago (7,185) and 223% up from two weeks ago (3,440).

Interim Health Commissioner Keith Reed noted that case counts underestimate the true spread of the disease in the community because of so much at-home testing and individuals with no-to-minor symptoms not seeking PCR tests, the numbers of which are reported.

Reed said he’s heard that there might be three to eight unreported cases for every confirmed case. During the first surge, he said, antibody testing in Oklahoma indicated that a 3-to-1 ratio was appropriate.

However, the original SARS-CoV-2 strain wasn’t nearly as transmissible as the omicron variant, he said.

“So you would anticipate with omicron that ratio would go up, but I would be concerned about trying to narrow that down too much because we just don’t have a lot of data that will support any kind of estimate of that right now,” Reed said.

The country’s weekly new case rate dropped for the first time since late 2021, according to the latest federal data from Monday.

But Oklahoma’s rate continued to rise swiftly, positioning the state as No. 7 in the nation for most new weekly cases.

The state was No. 2 in COVID hospital admissions per inpatient bed and No. 2 in test positivity.

Reed said New York is starting to experience a rapid decline in cases, along with Florida, New Mexico and Louisiana. He anticipates a rapid drop in Oklahoma, too, after it hits its peak.

He said it’s “going to be a tough couple of weeks, and maybe longer,” as the strain on hospitals is “very real right now” as they try to navigate the influx with even fewer staff members available to care for patients than in previous surges because of exposures or infections among the staff.

About 1 in 5 COVID patients in hospitals requires intensive care, down from a typical historic average of about 1 in 3.

“While it has been reported that omicron produces less severe illness — and that does seem to be the case — it is important to maintain perspective,” Reed said. “There is still risk of serious illness associated with COVID, especially for the immunocompromised and the unvaccinated.”

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