Primary leaves several races undecided

The races for U.S. Senate and House seats, four state offices, 11 legislative seats and the Republican nomination for Oklahoma County district attorney are all headed to Aug. 23 runoff elections — which means surviving candidates must find ways to keep voters’ attention for two more months.

Also on the Aug. 23 ballot for some area residents will be a Republican runoff between Bob Jack and Kelly Dunkerley for Tulsa County Commission District 3.

Other area runoffs will include the Republican nominations in House District 66 and Senate District 2.

The highest-profile runoffs figure to be for state superintendent of public instruction, U.S. Senate and the 2nd Congressional District.

State Education Secretary Ryan Walters, Gov. Kevin Stitt’s choice in the state superintendent’s race, and Shawnee Public Schools Superintendent April Grace are the Republican contestants for the common education chief.

Walters has the backing of school choice advocates, including former U.S. Education Secretary Betsy DeVos. He received 41.5% of the GOP primary vote.

Grace is supported by many state education professionals and received 30.5% in the primary.

The runoff is likely to be decided by the 24% who voted for Peggs Superintendent John Cox and a fourth candidate, William Crozier. The winner will face Democrat Jena Nelson, Oklahoma’s 2020 Teacher of the Year, in the Nov. 8 general election.

Second District Congressman Markwayne Mullin, who not unexpectedly did well in the eastern half of the state, takes an 26-point lead over T.W. Shannon into the Republican runoff for the unexpired term of Jim Inhofe in the U.S. Senate.

For Shannon to have any chance, it would seem he’d need to soak up a sizeable share of the roughly 20% third-place finisher Nathan Dahm attracted in the Tulsa metro area.

The only Democratic runoff is for the other Senate seat, the one now held by Republican James Lankford. That runoff features newcomers Madison Horn and Jason Bollinger.

In CD 2, state Rep. Avery Frix will be looking to consolidate Muskogee County Republicans, who split among Frix and two other local candidates in the primary, while former state Sen. Josh Brecheen will try to build on his base in southeastern Oklahoma, much of which he once represented in the Legislature.

Frix and Brecheen combined accounted for less than 30% of the primary vote, so both will have to do a lot of persuading in the coming weeks.

Tuesday’s election produced few true surprises but did see three incumbents ousted: Sen. Jake Merrick, R-Oklahoma City, Rep. Wendi Stearman, R-Collinsville, and Rep. Logan Phillips, R-Mounds.

Merrick and Stearman were beaten by challengers generally considered more moderate, while Phillips lost in a greatly altered district by an opponent, Chris Banning, who had considerable resources at his disposal.

Phillips was also one of several candidates targeted by school choice/voucher proponents. The others all won, although House Common Education Committee Chairwoman Rhonda Baker, R-Yukon, survived by only 72 votes.

The GOP primaries produced solid if not overwhelming turnout, with roughly 31.5% of the 1.14 million registered Republicans casting ballots in the gubernatorial primary, which was won easily by incumbent Kevin Stitt.

Democratic turnout is more difficult to calculate because an unknown number of independents voted in that primary and because the Democrats had fewer and generally less interesting races than the Republicans.

That said, the 167,674 ballots cast in the gubernatorial primary between Joy Hofmeister and Connie Johnson would be a much lower percentage turnout than for the Republicans, however it is figured. Through May, Oklahoma had 694,842 registered Democrats and 395,096 independents.

Figuring turnout is further complicated by the fact that while more ballots were cast in the gubernatorial primaries than any other, an unknown number of ballots that did not include a choice for governor, like those for Libertarians, were cast. Thus, the actual number of ballots cast is higher than the number in any one race.

Tulsa World Opinion podcast: In primary voting, is it about the party or the person?