Dr. Jennifer Clark hopes the U.S. is simply at a COVID-19 plateau and not the beginning of a winter surge, but indicators are concerning.
The weekly new case counts in 14 states — including Oklahoma — have increased by at least 25% from the prior week and by at least 15% in 24 other states, according to federal government data.
There are 41 states with high COVID transmission rates — Oklahoma included — and nine with substantial transmission, according to federal data.
Before the delta variant wave, the weekly case-rate low points in the state and country were about 15 to 25 cases per 100,000 population.
As of Tuesday data, Oklahoma was at 141 cases per 100,000, with the U.S. rate at 176. The delta peak was nearly 500 cases per 100,000 in Oklahoma and about 325 per 100,000 in the U.S.
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“We’re still a ways away from that (low point) and still have not fully recovered from the delta wave,” Clark said Wednesday during her presentation for Oklahoma State University’s Project ECHO COVID-19 session. “Heading into the winter months with this burden of disease is of concern.”
Europe is experiencing a “big jump” in cases, Clark said. The U.S. typically lags four to six weeks behind Europe, she said, which lands us right in the middle of the holiday season.
She said that’s another concern for which Oklahomans need to prepare.
“We’re watching what’s happening in Europe; we’re starting to see the early implications in the United States; and it’s just a matter of time before Oklahoma is directly impacted,” Clark said.
The timing is unclear, though.
Clark pointed out that the three states with the highest case counts are Michigan, Minnesota and New Mexico, which don’t share land borders.
Unlike prior surges that began in specific geographic areas and wrapped around the country — such as the delta variant’s spread outward from Missouri — the current rising spread appears to be scattered in the U.S, Clark said.
She described it as a “shotgun wave.”
“There’s not an obvious source or pattern as to how this is likely to unfold,” Clark said. “Trying to guess when Oklahoma is going to be affected by this wave is hard to know.”
Dr. Dale Bratzler, the University of Oklahoma’s chief COVID officer, said he doesn’t think a winter surge will spike as high as the delta variant did this summer.
But Bratzler is very concerned about complacency, especially given the “large outbreaks” of COVID just to the west and north of Oklahoma. He said the “nice decline” the state had been on has reversed to begin trending upward again.
“So states like New Mexico, Colorado, Kansas — and it appears that we’re starting to see perhaps some of that wave of most likely delta variant is rolling into northwest Oklahoma,” Bratzler said. “So I think we have to be very cautious at this point.”
"If it jumped from animals back to humans, then we could be going down the delta path again."
Your opinions on COVID-19: A collection of letters to the editor
Related: A collection of letters on Kevin Stitt
From the letters: People should think of long-term effects of COVID-19. Mayor Bynum should reconsider mask mandate stance. What number of COVID-19 deaths is acceptable to Gov. Stitt? Here’s a look at some recent letters to the editor on the COVID-19 pandemic.
"I’m not saying we will see late developing problems from COVID, but I’m wondering why anybody would take that chance when there is a vaccine available to stop or at least lessen the infection," says Bartlesville resident Clova Abrahamson.
"Having first-hand experience in this matter, as well as many others of my vintage, I can tell you that if getting a shot and wearing a mask could keep you from getting killed in battle as well as satisfy your obligation to your country, it just seems like a no-brainer," says Miami, Okla., resident Stephen Abraham.
"Help Oklahomans weather this pandemic more successfully and stop fighting aggressive vaccination," says Jenks resident Jim Wolf.
"Hiding behind all these excuses are not changing COVID-19’s hold on our world," writes Broken Arrow resident Joyce Jones-Hallman.
"You are merely being asked for a minor inconvenience to help slow a serious virus that is killing many of our citizens,"writes Tulsa resident Leonard Brehm.
"With so many people unwilling to be vaccinated, the need for a mask mandate is clear," writes Tulsa resident William G. Hollingsworth.
"Oh, how we would love for all to help us live a normal life again," writes Broken Arrow resident Donna Iseminger.
"To my knowledge, Gov. Stitt has always encouraged anyone who wants to wear a mask or feels safer wearing a mask can by all means wear a mask, anywhere, anytime," says Bixby resident Sam Woodard.
"Many Oklahoma employers, including Tulsa Public Schools, have adopted standards to protect their employees, students and customers despite Gov. Stitt," writes Tulsa resident Robert Leland.
"The refusal by so many to receive the proven-to-work vaccine is no laughing matter," writes Tulsa resident Phil Graham.
"We have attended school and traveled to many countries, all requiring government vaccine mandates of one kind or another," says Cleveland, Okla., resident Cecil Sterne.
"Grow up, America. Here’s a legal chance to shoot up," Tulsa resident Ken Widdowson says about the COVID-19 vaccine.
"Why not extend that mandate to those receiving government benefits?" asks Tulsa resident Edmund Seiders.
"Why can't the Tulsa Social Security Office figure out how to reopen safely?" asks Bixy resident Lynn Robertson.
"Too many good, decent Oklahomans are unnecessarily dead," writes Tulsa resident Tom Neal.
"Life is continuing on pretty much as usual where we visited. One might think that masking and vaccinations work," writes Tulsa resident Barbara Smallwood.
