WASHINGTON (AP) — The calendar said December but the warm moist air screamed of springtime. Add an eastbound storm front guided by a La Nina weather pattern into that mismatch and it spawned tornadoes that killed dozens over five U.S. states.
Tornadoes in December are unusual, but not unheard of. But the ferocity and path length of Friday night's tornadoes likely put them in a category of their own, meteorologists say. One of the twisters — if it is confirmed to have been just one — likely broke a nearly 100-year-old record for how long a tornado stayed on the ground in a path of destruction, experts said.
"One word: remarkable; unbelievable would be another," said Northern Illinois University meteorology professor Victor Gensini. "It was really a late spring type of setup in in the middle of December."
Warm weather was a crucial ingredient in this tornado outbreak, but whether climate change is a factor is not quite as clear, meteorologists say.
Scientists say figuring out how climate change is affecting the frequency of tornadoes is complicated and their understanding is still evolving. But they do say the atmospheric conditions that give rise to such outbreaks are intensifying in the winter as the planet warms. And tornado alley is shifting farther east away from the Kansas-Oklahoma area and into states where Friday's killers hit.
People are also reading…
Here's a look at what's known about Friday's tornado outbreak and the role of climate change in such weather events.
Tornadoes and climate change
What causes a tornado?

Tornadoes are whirling, vertical air columns that form from thunderstorms and stretch to the ground. They travel with ferocious speed and lay waste to everything in their path.
Thunderstorms occur when denser, drier cold air is pushed over warmer, humid air, conditions scientists call atmospheric instability. As that happens, an updraft is created when the warm air rises. When winds vary in speed or direction at different altitudes — a condition known as wind shear — the updraft will start to spin.
These changes in winds produce the spin necessary for a tornado. For especially strong tornadoes, changes are needed in both the wind's speed and direction.
"When considerable variation in wind is found over the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere, tornado-producing 'supercell thunderstorms' are possible," said Paul Markowski, professor of meteorology at Pennsylvania State University. "That's what we had yesterday."
There's usually a lot of wind shear in the winter because of the big difference in temperature and air pressure between the equator and the Arctic, Gensini said.
But usually, there's not a lot of instability in the winter that's needed for tornadoes because the air isn't as warm and humid, Gensini said. This time there was.
What conditions led to storms of this scale?

A few factors, which meteorologists will continue to study.
Spring-like temperatures across much of the Midwest and South in December helped bring the warm, moist air that helped form thunderstorms. Some of this is due to La Nina, which generally brings warmer than normal winter temperatures to the Southern U.S. But scientists also expect atypical, warm weather in the winter to become more common as the planet warms.
"The worst-case scenario happened. Warm air in the cold season, middle of the night," said John Gordon, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Louisville, Kentucky.
Once the storm formed, exceptionally strong wind shear appears to have prevented the tornadoes from dissipating, experts say. Tornadoes are thought to die off when thunderstorm updrafts lose energy.
Tornadoes typically lose energy in a matter of minutes, but in this case it was hours, Gensini said. That's partly the reason for the exceptionally long path of Friday's storm, going more than 200 miles (322 kilometers) or so, he said. The record was 219 miles (352 kilometers) and was set by a tornado that struck four states in 1925. Gensini thinks this one will surpass it once meteorologists finish analyzing it.
"In order to get a really long path length, you have to have a really fast moving storm. This storm was moving well over 50 miles (80 kilometers) per hour for a majority of its life," Gensini said. That's not the speed of the winds, but of the overall storm movement.
"You're talking about highway-speed storm motions," Gensini said.
How related is climate change to tornado outbreaks?

It's complicated. Scientists are still trying to sort out the many conflicting factors about whether human-caused climate change is making tornadoes more common — or even more intense. About 1,200 twisters hit the U.S. each year — though that figure can vary — according to the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory. No other country sees as many.
Attributing a specific storm like Friday's to the effects of climate change remains very challenging. Less than 10% of severe thunderstorms produce tornadoes, which makes drawing conclusions about climate change and the processes leading up to them tricky, said Harold Brooks, a tornado scientist at the National Severe Storms Laboratory.
Scientists have observed changes taking place to the basic ingredients of a thunderstorm, however, as the planet warms. Gensini says in the aggregate, extreme storms are "becoming more common because we have a lot warmer air masses in the cool season that can support these types of severe weather outbreaks."
The U.S. is likely to see more tornadoes occur in the winter, Brooks said, as national temperatures rise above the long-term average. Fewer events will take place in the summer, he said.
Furtado of the University of Oklahoma said tornado alley, a term used to describe where many twisters hit the U.S., has shifted eastward into the Mississippi River Valley. That shift is because of increases in temperature, moisture and shear.
"Bottom line: The people in the Mississippi River Valley and Ohio River Valley are becoming increasingly vulnerable to more tornadic activity with time," he said.
___
The Associated Press receives support from the Walton Family Foundation for coverage of water and environmental policy. The AP is solely responsible for all content. For all of AP’s environmental coverage, visit apnews.com/hub/environment
___
Here's a look at some of the relief being provided and ways to donate

Residents of homes in the neighborhood off Creekwood Avenue in Bowling Green, Ky., assess the damage of their properties after a tornado tore through Bowling Green, Ky., in the early hours of Saturday, Dec. 11, 2021. Storms swept through Bowling Green, Kentucky, near the Tennessee border, tearing roofs off homes and flinging debris into roadways. (Grace Ramey/Daily News via AP)
The American Red Cross is making it easy to send a quick $10 donation simply by texting “REDCROSS" addressed to the number, 90999. Other donations can be made by calling 800-733-2767 or visiting redcross.org online. Other information, including suggestions on how to find someone affected by the storm, can be found here.
The Salvation Army has set up a disaster relief fund for the tornado victims. Donations can made here or by calling 800-725-2769. It is also preparing to dispatch mobile kitchens that can serve 500 to 1,500 meals per day to the survivors and first responders in the affected areas.
World Vision, a Christian humanitarian group, plans to begin shipping relief supplies to churches in Kentucky beginning Sunday. Besides food and emergency kits, the supplies will include heaters, blankets, solar lights and mini-refrigerators. Donations to help support those efforts can be made here.
Samaritan’s Purse, another humanitarian group, said it sent disaster response teams on Saturday to Mayfield, Kentucky, and Monette, Arkansas, while other teams started to head to the devastation in Tennessee and Illinois. A tractor-trailer stocked with tools and equipment departed from Texas, according to the group, with more help on the way from North Carolina when weather allows. Donations can be made here.
Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear announced the creation of a tornado relief fund for the western part of the state and also called on people to donate blood, which has been running in short supply during the pandemic.
Photos: Clean-up, recovery efforts continue after multi-state tornado outbreak

A car sits flipped over by a tornado in Bowling Green, Ky., Saturday, Dec. 11, 2021. A monstrous tornado killed dozens of people in Kentucky and the toll was climbing Saturday after severe weather ripped through at least five states, leaving widespread devastation. (AP Photo/Michael Clubb)

Luke Schockley moves debris from a tornado inside his parent in-law's house in Bowling Green, Ky., Saturday, Dec. 11, 2021. A monstrous tornado killed dozens of people in Kentucky and the toll was climbing Saturday after severe weather ripped through at least five states, leaving widespread devastation. (AP Photo/Michael Clubb)

Rubble surrounds the damaged Graves County Courthouse Saturday, Dec. 11, 2021, in Mayfield, Ky. Tornadoes and severe weather caused catastrophic damage across several states Friday, killing multiple people overnight. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)

People walk down a street with damaged homes Saturday, Dec. 11, 2021, in Mayfield, Ky. Tornadoes and severe weather caused catastrophic damage across several states Friday, killing multiple people overnight. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)

A car drives down a street lined with debris Saturday, Dec. 11, 2021, in Mayfield, Ky. Tornadoes and severe weather caused catastrophic damage across several states Friday, killing multiple people overnight. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)

People walk across a lawn covered with insulation Saturday, Dec. 11, 2021, in Mayfield, Ky. Tornadoes and severe weather caused catastrophic damage across several states Friday, killing multiple people overnight. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)

This Saturday, Dec. 11, 2021, satellite photo provided by Maxar shows the county courthouse and other nearby buildings after a tornado caused heavy damage in the area, in Mayfield, Ky. (Satellite image ©2021 Maxar Technologies via AP)

People help retrieve items from a destroyed home Saturday, Dec. 11, 2021, in Mayfield, Ky. Tornadoes and severe weather caused catastrophic damage across several states Friday, killing multiple people overnight. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)

People sort through debris Saturday, Dec. 11, 2021, in Mayfield, Ky. Tornadoes and severe weather caused catastrophic damage across several states Friday, killing multiple people overnight. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)

People walk past a destroyed building Saturday, Dec. 11, 2021, in Mayfield, Ky. Tornadoes and severe weather caused catastrophic damage across several states Friday, killing multiple people overnight. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)

Men sort through a destroyed business Saturday, Dec. 11, 2021, in Mayfield, Ky. Tornadoes and severe weather caused catastrophic damage across several states Friday, killing multiple people overnight. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)

Tornado damage is seen in Dresden, Tenn., Saturday, Dec. 11, 2021. (George Walker IV/The Tennessean via AP)

Gov. Bill Lee, right, greets Patrina and James Roy Pope as they give away food to people after a tornado caused heavy damage in Dresden, Tenn., Saturday, Dec. 11, 2021. (George Walker IV/The Tennessean via AP)

Gov. Bill Lee looks over tornado damage at Cumberland Presbyterian Church in Dresden, Tenn., on Saturday, Dec. 11, 2021. (George Walker IV/The Tennessean via AP)

Friends and family search amidst remnants for valuables at the home of Ollie and Vernon Borgmann on Highway F in Defiance, Mo., on Saturday, Dec. 11, 2021, that was heavily damaged by severe weather. A monstrous tornado, carving a track that could rival the longest on record, ripped through the middle of the U.S. in a stormfront that killed dozens and tore apart a candle factory, crushed a nursing home, derailed a train and smashed an Amazon warehouse. (Christian Gooden/St. Louis Post-Dispatch via AP)

People inspect the remains of a destroyed business Saturday, Dec. 11, 2021, in Mayfield, Ky. Tornadoes and severe weather caused catastrophic damage across several states Friday, killing multiple people overnight. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)

In this aerial photo, a collapsed factory is seen with workers searching for survivors, Saturday, Dec. 11, 2021, in Mayfield, Ky., after tornadoes came through the area the previous night. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

In this aerial photo, a collapsed factory is seen with searchlights as workers search for survivors amid a landscape largely without power, late Saturday, Dec. 11, 2021, in Mayfield, Ky., after tornadoes came through the area the previous night. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

This Saturday, Dec. 11, 2021, satellite photo provided by Maxar shows a close-up of an Amazon warehouse in Edwardsville, Ill., after severe storms moved through the area late the previous evening, causing catastrophic damage. (Satellite image ©2021 Maxar Technologies via AP)

Debris surrounds the damaged Graves County courthouse in Mayfield, Ky., on Saturday, Dec. 11, 2021. Rescuers combed through fields of wreckage after a tornado outbreak roared across the middle of the U.S., leaving dozens dead and communities in despair. (AP Photo/Dylan T. Lovan)

Chelsea Emmons holds on to a cat, Marinda, that belongs to her mother, Kim Goforth, Saturday, Dec. 11, 2021, in Bremen, Ky, while searching Goforth's home that was destroyed by a tornado late Friday evening. Emmons found the cat hiding in a dresser drawer. (Greg Eans/The Messenger-Inquirer via AP)

Jessie Baize sifts through a destroyed storage shed belonging to his mother-in-law, Saturday, Dec. 11, 2021, in Moorman, Ky., to save items that were scattered in a tornado that swept through the area on Friday night. Several buildings on the property on Kentucky 431 were damaged in the storm. (Greg Eans/The Messenger-Inquirer via AP)

Courtney Saxton chats with her 13-year-old daughter, Querria, at the St. Jerome Parish Hall in Fancy Farm, Ky., on Saturday, Dec. 11, 2021. The family’s Mayfield, Ky., home was destroyed by a tornado. (AP Photo/Bruce Schreiner)

People salvage items from a Guatemalan grocery store Saturday, Dec. 11, 2021, in Mayfield, Ky. Tornadoes and severe weather caused catastrophic damage across several states Friday, killing multiple people overnight. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)

People help retrieve items from a destroyed home Saturday, Dec. 11, 2021, in Mayfield, Ky. Tornadoes and severe weather caused catastrophic damage across several states Friday, killing multiple people overnight. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)
The Associated Press receives support from the Walton Family Foundation for coverage of water and environmental policy. The AP is solely responsible for all content. For all of AP's environmental coverage, visit https://apnews.com/hub/environment