Tulsa experts: Ukraine war is heading toward an 'unpleasant compromise'

Ending the war in Ukraine will likely require “an unpleasant compromise” with Russian President Vladimir Putin, local experts suggested during a panel discussion Wednesday at the University of Tulsa.

The invasion was “Putin’s choice,” but the United States and other Western countries played a role in events leading up to the conflict, said Robert Donaldson, a professor emeritus of political science and former president of TU.

Russia overestimated the threat that Ukraine would pose as a member of NATO, but the Western alliance underestimated the depth of Russia’s concern over NATO’s expansion into the former Soviet Union, Donaldson said.

“This is Putin’s war,” he said. “But America and NATO share the blame.”

Ending the violence likely will mean acknowledging that Ukraine cannot reclaim Crimea, a region that Russia has claimed for itself since 2014, and cannot become a member of NATO in the foreseeable future, Donaldson said.

“There’s an unpleasant but possibly necessary option,” he said. “The U.S. can be active in encouraging the Ukrainian government to stop the bloodshed by negotiating a ceasefire.”

The university’s roundtable discussion included experts in Russian affairs, international politics, media and psychology, as well as a rowing coach who grew up in Ukraine.

While the Russian military might force concessions from Ukraine, the war will ultimately prove to be a mistake for Putin as economic sanctions take a toll, the panelists said.

“As time goes by, Putin will be losing ground,” said Martin Jirušek, an assistant professor of international and European studies at Masaryk University in the Czech Republic. “He will have much fewer things to play with, and then Putin will have to make concessions.”

The panel debated whether the war is going as planned for Russia, with some suggesting that Putin might have expected less resistance. But they acknowledged that it can be difficult to know what is happening in Ukraine with the level of propaganda and misinformation coming from both sides.

Television has almost become another front in the war, said Ben Peters, an associate professor of media studies.

“Turn off the TV news,” Peters told the audience. “Turn off the talking heads on Fox News and CNN and instead read your news.”

Assistant rowing coach Kateryna Klymenko uses an app to know when the air raid sirens are going off in the capital city of Kiev, where her parents and other family members live. If she calls and her loved ones don’t answer, she knows they have gone to an underground shelter.

“It’s a weird time,” Klymenko said. “I think the most important thing not to forget is that we Ukrainians are the same as you all. It’s nothing different.”

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