Those who track COVID data might have noticed some metrics declining since late July, but the number of infections could start to increase again now that school is back in session.
Along with testing for COVID-19, the average for new cases across the state has declined in two consecutive weekly reports from the Oklahoma State Department of Health.
However, COVID-19 cases among children have not seen the same decline as other age groups, according to an update Thursday from Dr. David Kendrick of MyHealth Data Network. He said he expects infections to increase among the youngest age groups.
“With school starting this week, I think we’re going to see a rise in school-age kids, for sure,” Kendrick said, “and maybe the 18- to 35-year-old parents of those kids, as well. We’ll see.”
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Hospital admissions and ICU stays related to COVID infections have actually remained fairly flat across the state in the past week, according to Thursday’s update. A recent three-day average for Tulsa County shows that COVID-related hospitalizations inched up to 110 from 102, with 45 infected patients in the ICU.
Tulsa County remains at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s highest risk level for COVID-19 transmission. At that level, residents are encouraged to wear a mask indoors in public and on public transportation.
As nearly 17,000 Oklahomans have died of COVID-19, health officials consistently urge vaccination as the best way to prevent hospitalization and fatal complications. For many, that might mean getting up to date on the shots.
“It is very, very clear from the evidence — like, just incontrovertibly clear — that if you got fully vaccinated, if you got your two shots but have not gotten your booster, you need to get that,” White House COVID-19 Response Coordinator Dr. Ashish Jha said July 25. “That is essential. It’s probably the most important message people need to hear.”
Kendrick noted a slight increase in mid-July in the number of Oklahomans obtaining their first or second dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. The state ranks 37th in the U.S. with less than 60% of residents fully vaccinated.
The CDC has relaxed distancing and quarantine guidelines for COVID-19, saying an estimated 95% of Americans age 16 and older have acquired some level of immunity, either from being vaccinated or infected. The agency also removed its recommendation that schools do routine COVID testing.
The number of active COVID-19 cases in Oklahoma has remained fairly static since late July, but trends observed in the data from last August would indicate the potential for an upcoming spike.
“I think that COVID is sort of finding its curve now,” Kendrick said of the somewhat predictable data trends. “With the ever-present caveat that … if we get another variant in play, then I have a difficult time saying what we might see.”
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