More job growth is likely in Tulsa next year, and the national economy also should continue to improve.
That's the forecast from Tulsa Regional Chamber economist Bob Ball, who projects about 9,500 additional jobs in the metro area, up 2.2 percent over 2013.
"The growth rate is accelerating, and Tulsa is poised to grow," Ball said Wednesday.
The positive news was part of the annual Economic Outlook Conference, which featured local and state economic forecasts as well as a keynote address by Jim Huntzinger, executive vice president and chief investment officer of BOK Financial Corp., Bank of Oklahoma.
Hundreds of people turned out for the breakfast, presented by the Tulsa Regional Chamber and the Spears School of Business at Oklahoma State University, and held at the Renaissance Tulsa Hotel & Convention Center.
People are also reading…
In his overview of the Tulsa area's economy, Ball noted employment expectations for several target industries, including health care; energy; aerospace; advanced manufacturing; professional and business services; and transportation, distribution and logistics.
Employment is forecast to grow 6.4 percent in the area's advanced manufacturing sector next year compared with 5.3 percent this year.
Professional and business services should grow 4 percent in 2014 versus 2.6 percent this year, Ball said, adding that energy employment growth is likely to slow to 1.2 percent next year from 2.1 percent this year.
Tulsa-area personal income, likewise, is poised to grow by 6.4 percent in 2014, up from 4.7 percent this year, Ball said.
Dan Rickman, OSU regents professor of economics, expects the state's jobless rate to stay between 5 percent and 5.5 percent next year.
"As we start approaching full employment, we're going to see much slower employment growth as we use up the slackness in the labor market," he said.
An aging population is contributing to the constrained labor growth, which could lead to slower employment growth both nationally and locally through the end of the decade, Rickman said. Also, as economies firm up nationwide, the pool of people who could potentially move to Oklahoma will shrink, making the state more reliant on its own labor force.
Occupations that are growing the fastest are at the high and low ends of the pay scale rather than in the middle, Rickman said. For Oklahoma to develop its economy outside of energy and aerospace and into other higher-paying sectors, the state needs to improve its college completion rates, he added.
Huntzinger pointed to a U.S. jobless rate that has gradually improved. Whereas the nation's unemployment rate peaked at about 10 percent just after the recession ended, it now stands at 7 percent.
The BOK executive looks for a 2014 U.S. jobless rate of about 6.5 percent, and possibly lower by the second half of next year. He noted, however, that the "underemployment" rate is much higher at 14 percent as people have had to take part-time jobs or full-time jobs that pay less.
"We've made progress," Huntzinger said. "I know all of us would say it hasn't happened fast enough. It hasn't felt very good, but we've slowly, slowly, ground our way down" in terms of unemployment.
Nonfarm payrolls have improved. The nation was shedding close to 800,000 jobs a month at the bottom of the recession. In the last three months, it has been adding between 175,000 and 200,000 a month, Huntzinger said.
Consumer confidence is currently better than business confidence because of rising home values and investment portfolios, including 401(k) and similar retirement plans. The Standard & Poor's 500 stock market index is up 27 percent this year.
"We are in a synchronized global expansion," Huntzinger said. "It's not dramatically rapid, but we are now all growing."
He noted that inflation is not a problem at present, and that the nation can continue to grow even if interest rates begin to rise.
"It's important that rates don't spike higher, because if they spike higher I guarantee the economy will take its foot off the gas pedal and we'll start rolling into neutral and maybe down," Huntzinger said. "As long as the rate rise is gradual ... I think we're OK."
He said he is looking for growth in the gross domestic product of 2.5 percent to 3 percent next year.
Laurie Winslow 918-581-8466
