Oklahoma Senate pro tem says another revenue failure is a 'real possibility'

“We’re six months into the budget year, and there’s been no real trend,” said Schulz, R-Altus. “After December’s numbers, I think (a revenue failure) is a real possibility.”

Revenue failures occur when deposits to the state’s general revenue fund fall more than 5 percent short of the estimate on which a fiscal year budget is based.

The state’s fiscal years run from July 1 to June 30.

In December, general revenue receipts were 12.3 percent below the estimate for the month and 2.7 percent below the estimate for the first half of FY 2017.

Schulz said monthly revenue has been erratic and makes forecasting through the current fiscal year, much less the next one, very difficult.

Current projections are for $868 million less in general revenue for FY 2018 than the current year, which in turn was $1.3 billion less than the year before that.

Given those conditions, Schulz said, a significant pay raise for teachers is unlikely in FY 2018.

“I think we can get to a framework for a program that is stepped in … beginning in 2019,” he said.

Schulz said he expects discussion of broadening the sales-tax base to raise revenue, a move that Gov. Mary Fallin has endorsed but which would require three-fourths majorities in both the House and Senate or a vote of the people.

Before much of anything is done with the budget or education, though, Schulz said the Legislature must address Real ID, a 12-year-old federal law that Oklahoma has tried to ignore.

Adopted in the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, the law requires technologically upgraded identification to board commercial airlines or enter most federal buildings and installations.

Oklahoma has been able to get waivers from the Department of Homeland Security, but the last of those is about to expire. Schluz said it will not be renewed if Oklahoma does not take action.

“I’d like to see something on Gov. Fallin’s desk by March 15,” he said.