Oklahoma’s tumultuous political year has already produced more than its share of thrills, spills, upsets and surprises, and we could see more of the same in the Nov. 6 general election.
A full slate of statewide offices will be on the ballot, as will all five congressional seats and five state questions. Nineteen state Senate and 72 state House of Representatives slots will be decided.
In such an unsettled political year, it’s difficult to know what to expect, especially from legislative races. Twelve incumbents, 11 from the House, have already been turned out, and more could follow next month.
With large majorities in the House and Senate, Republicans have more seats to defend than Democrats. So far, only Republicans have gotten the voters’ pink slip — but both parties have some tough seats to defend in the fall.
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The Tulsa area will decide more than 20 legislative seats in the general election. Here are five of the most intriguing.
House District 75: Democrat Karen Gaddis pulled off a huge upset by winning this seat in a 2017 special election. The district, which is split between north Broken Arrow and east Tulsa, is a long-time Republican stronghold, and the GOP has a 15-point advantage in registration. Democrats and independents combined, though, do slightly outnumber Republicans.
Republicans recruited a strong candidate, 37-year-old pharmacist T.J. Marti, but Gaddis is working the district hard. Libertarian Kelli Krebs is also on the ballot.
The GOP views this as a seat they not only should win but need to win. A Gaddis victory would be significant.
House District 71: Democrats have been trying to win this Brookside-area seat for more than a decade and almost got it done in a 2012 special election that was thrown out because of disputed ballots.
Former Congressman John Sullivan and U.S. Sen. Jim Inhofe are among the Republicans who’ve represented HD 71 since the House went to discrete districts in the 1960s. It’s been slowly trending Democratic, though, and voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 and Hillary Clinton in 2016.
With incumbent Katie Henke not seeking re-election, the GOP has turned to attorney Cheryl Baber while former TV newswoman Denise Brewer carries the Democratic flag. Democrats are licking their chops, but Henke had little trouble retaining this seat for the Republicans in 2014 and 2016.
House District 79: Some observers think this could be the most interesting race of all, however it turns out.
Longtime conservative activist Dan Hicks won the GOP nomination while most similar candidates were losing. Moderate Republicans may not be big fans, but he is well-known in party circles and a diligent campaigner.
His Democratic opponent is Melissa Provenzano, a Bixby High School administrator who’s making a strong appeal to public education supporters.
To win, though, Provenzano has to persuade a lot of education-minded Republicans to vote for her or stay home, and she has to get the independent vote to go her way.
Regardless of the outcome, both parties are interested in how Hicks’ and Provenzano’s messages play in this traditional Republican district.
House District 12: This should be a Republican seat, based on registration and demographics, but incumbent Kevin McDugle has ruffled some GOP feathers during his first term.
Some of his more conservative constituents were upset by his votes to raise taxes to pay for teacher pay raises, and education supporters were mad about a Facebook rant about protesters at the Capitol.
A messy divorce didn’t set well, either, and McDugle won the Republican primary by only five votes.
McDugle is opposed by Democrat Cyndi Ralston, a plain-spoken elementary teacher for 30 years in and around the district, which takes in all but the southwest corner of Wagoner County.
If Republicans upset with McDugle forgive and forget, he should win easily. If not, Ralston has a shot.
Senate District 2: Not many area Senate seats are on the Nov. 6 ballot, but this one is probably the most competitive.
The district includes most of Rogers County and a big chunk of Mayes County and is lopsidedly Republican. But another incumbent — in this case, Marty Quinn — has ticked off some educators and drawn a strong opponent.
Democrat Jennifer Esau is a Claremore special education teacher and Oklahoma Education Association board member who reportedly has been working the district hard. She probably won’t be able to flip it, but it’ll be interesting to see if she can move the needle.
