OKLAHOMA CITY — Oklahoma voter registration surged by nearly 30,000 between Jan. 15 and Feb. 5, the last date to sign up or switch parties before the March 1 presidential primary.
That figure does not include another 8,301 people already registered to vote who changed party affiliation during the same time period.
The new registrations increase the statewide total by only 1.5 percent, but observers say the surge is significant because of trends it might signal.
“My (telephone) call volume has been more than it normally is on Election Day,” said Bryan Dean with the Oklahoma State Election Board.
“We had 12,000 registrations come in the week before the deadline and another 10,000 the week after that had been taken before the deadline. That’s 10 times our normal volume,” Dean said.
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Bill Shapard, president of SoonerPoll.com, said he tracks such things closely because those trends can affect polling.
The increased volume, particularly among Republicans, could translate to greater enthusiasm and a higher than usual turnout. If that enthusiasm is concentrated behind one candidate, it can throw off the voter profile models that pollsters use to construct their polls.
“SoonerPoll has a pretty good track record,” Shapard said. “The only times we’ve been wrong has been when our turnout model was wrong.”
The Republican Party made the biggest gain during the three-week period, a net increase of about 19,000. The Republicans had a net gain of almost 4,000 among people who changed affiliations.
Democrats lost a similar number through re-affiliation but wound up with a net gain of about 5,750. About 1,000 independents moved to one of the major parties, but their total registration increased by about 6,000.
More independents shifted to the Republican Party than Democratic, but the significance of that is unclear because independents may now vote in Democratic primaries.
And, in fact, Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders has been targeting independent voters with a mail campaign.
The figures do temper claims of a Democratic Party revival. Despite the recent uptick, Democratic registration is down 45,000 from a year ago, while Republican registration has increased some 13,000. Independents are up about 10,000.
Shapard said he suspects the most recent bump in Republican registration may indicate an influx of Donald Trump followers who have previously been Democrats or independents or not politically involved. Unlike the Oklahoma Democratic Party, only registered Republicans may vote in Oklahoma Republican primaries.
