A minor tremor went through political social media Tuesday night after Democrats won two previously Republican legislative seats in off-year special elections in Tulsa and Oklahoma City.
Joyous Democrats from Seattle to New York hailed the results as a precursor to a "blue wave" sweeping the nation in 2018, but such excitement over two special elections in Oklahoma may say more about the depths of recent Democrat despair than the true state of political affairs in this state.
To be sure, the victories were significant. This is particularly true for Karen Gaddis' win in House District 75, a previously reliable Republican district that, despite some demographic shifts, is still much more red than blue in terms of registration.
Senate District 44, which Democrat Michael Brooks (also known as Michael Brooks-Jimenez) won by 9 points, is more of a tossup. Registration is split almost evenly between Republicans and Democrats, with 20 percent on the rolls as independents. But it was a seat Democrats badly needed to win because of potential losses elsewhere, particularly in the Lawton area, in 2018.
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Special elections are generally easier for underdogs to win because turnout is usually low and no incumbents are involved. In these two cases, the Democrats seem to have been more energized and had better known candidates than the Republicans.
The real test will come in the 2018 general elections. Democrats won two off-year special elections in 2015 but lost ground again in the 2016 general.
Democrats did manage to hold the formerly Republican Oklahoma City seat won by Rep. Cyndi Munson, and that will be one of the tells come November 2018. Democrats will not only have to defend the two seats won Tuesday, but their other 2016 special election pick-up, Sen. J.J. Dossett's GOP-heavy north Tulsa County district.
Tuesday was a nice day for Oklahoma Democrats, but it doesn't necessarily signal a major shift in Oklahoma politics.
For Oklahoma Republicans, though, there is this sobering thought. For the first time in a long time, they don't have Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton to use as bogeymen. For better or worse, they are on their own.
